## The AI Fermi Prize

By jacobklagerros on Jan. 22, 2019, 10 a.m. GMT

We will be awarding bi-weekly prizes of $400 and$200 to the top two best commenters on the server, in the periods:

Round 1: Until February 9, 23:59 GMT, 2019 Round 1 winners can be found here.

Round 2: From February 10 until February 23, 23:59 GMT Round 2 winners can be found here.

Round 3: From February 24 until March 10, 23:59 GMT Round 3 winners can be found here.

Round 4: From March 10 until March 23, 23:59 GMT Round 4 winners can be found here.

After round 4, the AI Fermi Prize take a brief hiatus. We will likely be back with more prizes in the future, we're just thinking through what shape they should take.

A good commenter is someone who substantially contributes to our mission of tracking and improving the state-of-the-art of forecasts on AI progress.

This might take the shape of a single beacon of good work, or a longer seris of contributions.

Examples of prize-worthy contributions are (note, these have not been updated since the first round, and further examples can be found here)...

Public predicting

• Regularly posting their predictions as comments and including an explanation of them (using the “post prediction as comment” feature that appears after you’ve predicted)
###### https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comm…

Modelling

• Generating new models (especially interactive ones using e.g. Guesstimate)
###### --If there is, we look at the reactions of the people you quote as skeptical of the current result. Are they mollified? If at least 50% of them (after excluding those for whom we can't find comments) agree that the new system doesn't have unfair APM (and isn't unfair in some new way that AlphaStar wasn't) then the question resolves positive. Otherwise, it resolves negative.

This is not a checklist. We can imagine awarding the prize to someone who has written only a handful of comments, or to someone who has written dozens of one-sentence comments; to someone who has done only one of the above or someone who has done many. The key determinant will be the quality of the contribution.

The winners will be determined at the sole discretion of the Metaculus AI team.

For questions, comments, and more, you can comment below or just reach out to Jacob (jacobklagerros@gmail.com) or Ben (goldhaber.ben@gmail.com).