Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will negative sentiment in media coverage of AI reach a new peak in 2019?
The AI Index tracks the percentage of popular media articles that contain the term Artificial Intelligence and that are classified as either Positive, Negative, or Neutral (see p. 43 in the 2018 report, using a sentiment classifier from PR firm TrendKite.
Negative sentiment has been slowly growing since January 2013, from a mean of ~1% to a mean of ~3% in first-half of 2018. It reached it's highest point thus far, 6%, in February 2016 (which interestingly correlates with the widely publicized AlphaGo matches against Lee Sedol, in March 2016). This also correlates with a substantial -- and sustained -- increase in positive sentiment from below 15% to almost 30%, which lasts to the latest data-point in the AI Index.
Now we ask:
Will the percentage negative sentiment in media coverage of AI be >=7% at some point in 2019 (including the Jan 1 data-point but excluding the Jan 1 2020 data-point)?
If no analysis using the same methodology as the AI Index survey is available, the question will resolve as ambiguous.
The underlying data from the AI Index report can be found here.
The 2018 report, inclunding a full description of the methodology in Appendix 17, can be found here.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.