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Will negative sentiment in media coverage of AI reach a new peak in 2019?

Question

The AI Index tracks the percentage of popular media articles that contain the term Artificial Intelligence and that are classified as either Positive, Negative, or Neutral (see p. 43 in the 2018 report, using a sentiment classifier from PR firm TrendKite.

Negative sentiment has been slowly growing since January 2013, from a mean of ~1% to a mean of ~3% in first-half of 2018. It reached it's highest point thus far, 6%, in February 2016 (which interestingly correlates with the widely publicized AlphaGo matches against Lee Sedol, in March 2016). This also correlates with a substantial -- and sustained -- increase in positive sentiment from below 15% to almost 30%, which lasts to the latest data-point in the AI Index.

Now we ask:

Will the percentage negative sentiment in media coverage of AI be >=7% at some point in 2019 (including the Jan 1 data-point but excluding the Jan 1 2020 data-point)?

If no analysis using the same methodology as the AI Index survey is available, the question will resolve as ambiguous.


Data

The underlying data from the AI Index report can be found here.

The 2018 report, inclunding a full description of the methodology in Appendix 17, can be found here.

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Prediction

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