assembling contingent insights computing definitive predictions mapping critical contingencies generating calibrated futures forecasting quantitative predictions mapping the future computing intelligent forecasts predicting contingent predictions modeling critical contingencies assembling accurate contingencies modeling accurate insights mapping precise forecasts formulating critical wisdom computing precise understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

By end of 2021, will an AI lab outside of North America, EU27, UK or Australia have been nationalized?

This question has a cousin concerning nationalization of labs inside North America, EU27, UK or Australia.

Resolution

The AI lab can be a for-profit/financial subsidiary of a for-profit (such as DeepMind) or non-profit (such as OpenAI), but academic labs do not count. The lab must have had >=5 papers at major AI conferences (this excludes situations like the question resolving positive due to General Motors being nationalised and having an applied AI team).

The take-over must not involve compensation to shareholders, close to an estimated fair market price, for the loss of the net worth of seized assets and potential income.

The date of nationalization will be taken to be the date that a credible government outlet announces the intention to nationalize the lab, OR the date when another credible news outlet reports the nationalization, and the question will retroactively close one month prior to this date.

The location of the lab will be determined by the nationalizing country (even if the lab has subsidiaries, offices, or headquarters in another country).

Treatment of other special cases:

Resolves positive if a government takes operations control of an AI lab, but not ownership, such that the stockholders still get the profits, but can't make decisions (see this for a historical US example).

Resolves positive if the parent company of an AI lab is nationalized for non-AI reasons, e.g. US nationalizes Facebook because of privacy concerns.

The quasi-nationalization seen in China is not sufficient to resolve positive:

Communist Party committees have been installed at many tech firms, reviewing everything from operations to compliance with national goals. Regulators have been discussing taking a 1 percent stake in some giants, including Alibaba and Tencent, along with a board seat. Tech companies have been widely encouraged to invest in state-owned firms, in the hopes of making them more productive.

Categories: Other question collections – BERI open-source question set – Governments and nationality, Other sociological, economic, geopolitical questions – China

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.