Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

By mid-2020 will Tesla have feature complete autonomous driving cars?

At a recent presentation on autonomous vehicles by Elon Musk, he declared that within approximately a year and 2 months their self-driving capabilities will be feature complete, and it will be as if "a million robo-taxis were on the road".

This question will resolve positively if, by Q3 2020, a Tesla Model 3 can drive itself fully from random destination A to random destination B where the distance between the two points is six miles (average distance of a ride in the US) without human intervention. This question will resolve positively if this test is run and/or if credible media reports say this can be done.

Note: This might not receive regulatory approval, but could still resolve positively if it is possible to run this test (which would account for Elon's statement "from Tesla's perspective"). I expect if this is possible we will see numerous examples of it happening.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.