Question
Facebook Twitter
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • Invite Coauthors
  • Remove myself
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

    By what date will an AI system be able to outperform professional game testers on all Atari games using no game-specific knowledge?

    Created by jacobklagerros and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    Resolution

    By "all" Atari games we mean the more than 50 games listed on the EFF AI Progress Measurement page.

    (This should be interpreted as: "there exists one system which can play all games (though possibly including retraining)", and not "for each game there exists one system which can play it".)

    Resolution date will be set to the earliest of the following dates:

    • Publication date of a credible paper, blog-post, video or similar demonstrating an AI achieving the feat in question

    • A credible paper, blog-post, video or similar, referencing a date earlier than its publication date, by which the feat was achieved (similar to how DeepMind kept AlphaGo's victory over European champion Fan Hui secret from October 2015 to January 2016, in order to coincide with the publication of the corresponding Nature paper)

    • A date such that an expert council of several senior AI researchers agree (by majority vote) that it is >=95% likely that the feat could have been carried out by that date. This means not just the date when the computational resources and algorithmic insights were available, but the date were they could have been fully deployed to solve the problem. For example, think the end and not the beginning of the AlphaGo project. [1] [2]

    [1] The point of this counterfactual resolution condition is as follows. Not all trajectories to advanced AI pass by a single agent playing all Atari games. There might be a point at which it is clear that the feat in the question is achievable, even though no one has actually bothered to implement the experiment.
    This is similar to how the release of the AlphaZero agent (playing chess, Go and shogi) should give us >=95% confidence that it is possible to play Othello at superhuman level without domain-specific knowledge, even though no one (to the author's knowledge) ran that experiment.
    [2] More details regarding the council composition will be announced on Metaculus in the coming months.
    Categories:
    Other question collections – BERI open-source question set – General performance benchmarks
    Workshop – Cluster 2: Performance benchmarks

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.