Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?
This question is related to others on algorithmic progress, including:
- Will the growth rate of conceptual AI insights remain linear in 2019?
- By 2020, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?
- How can we forecast algorithmic progress?
Following OpenAI Five’s success against OG, OpenAI revealed that the agent trained with the equivalent of 45,000 years of gameplay. Greg Brockman commented:
We agree the massive training data requirement is a real limitation — fixing that issue is a next focus.
As did the official blog post:
[...] we think decreasing the amount of experience is a next challenge for RL.
How successful will these attempts be? We now ask:
By July 1st 2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay used in training by an agent at least as good as OpenAI Five (Finals 2019 version)?
The method of calculation should be as close as possible to that generating the 45,000 years figure.
An agent will be taken to be “at least as good as OpenAI Five” if it either...
- ...defeats OpenAI Five in >=40% of games, or...
- ...has a TrueSkill rating >=64, or some other commonly used Dota 2 rating (e.g. MMR) >= OpenAI Five, or…
- ...in some other way is revealed to be at this level of performance (such as by credible statements by the OpenAI team or by Dota 2 pros).
3 is included as we don’t want to end up deciding the question based on which graph is reported in a paper, etc., but nonetheless 3. will require a high level of credibility.
If the agent ends up exceeding the performance of OpenAI Five using a total of X years of experience, but there is enough data to determine after how many years Y the agents were evenly matched, we will use Y as the resolution.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.