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    How impressive will the January 24 Starcraft II AI reveal be?

    Created by kokotajlod on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by kokotajlod on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    This question is related to the superhuman Starcraft question on the main Metaculus site, the $10.000 Starcraft question, and [1], [2] and [3] Dota 2 questions.

    This is a rare opportunity for a very short-term AI milestone prediction: Blizzard & DeepMind are announcing tomorrow (at 10:00 AM Pacific Time) their latest progress on Starcraft II AI [1] [2].

    How (un)impressive will the results be?

    It's hard to make this question more precise since we don't know how they'll be measuring their own progress. However, here is an attempt:

    Will the AI they showcase January 24 be credibly claimed to be capable of beating master-level human players at least once, in a non-trivially restricted version of Starcraft II?

    A few months ago Tencent announced the TStarBots system which they estimate have the ability to beat platinum and diamond-level humans (based on informal discussions on Starcraft II forums), and which demonstrated some success against previous bots and humans (see the arXiv paper and the discussion on Hacker News).

    We will take a non-trivial restriction to be one not more restrictive than that Tencent system, which only played a specific map, Zerg vs. Zerg, and 1 vs. 1.

    In case the announcement concerns another upcoming benchmark, an AI playing a more restricted version of Starcraft, an AI of uncertain capacity, and so forth, the question will resolve ambiguously.

    Make a Prediction

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