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Conditional on human-level AI by 2039, will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?

There is also an unconditional version of this question. Asking about both allows us to properly update on the event, by multiplying our prior with the normalised strength of evidence to get

OpenAI has announced the final live event for OpenAI five will be a series of matches against OG, the reigning world champions. OpenAI Five had previously played against human players at the International, and lost the majority of the matches played.

Have the past eight months been enough time for them to build a world champion level Dota2 AI?

Conditional on human-level AI being developed before Jan 1st 2039, will OpenAI win a majority of the matches played against OG at thee OpenAI Five Finals on April 13th?

Resolution

  • The total number of matches will be the number of matches played live between OG and OpenAI Five.

  • For the purposes of question resolution OG will be considered the team that is fielded on April 13th - e.g. if for some reason a player is substituted onto the OG roster the team will still be OG.

  • Human-level AI is taken to mean a system that can pass a generalized intelligence test described by this previous Metaculus question.

Categories: AGI – Various conditionals, Importance of superhuman micro abilities in games, Organizational progress – OpenAI

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