Forecast
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    By end of 2019, will OpenAI be valued at more than $10 billion?

    Created by jacobklagerros on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by jacobklagerros {{"onDate" | translate:({date: (qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr)})}}

    Question

    This question is related to others concerning OpenAI LP, including:

    On March 12 OpenAI announced:

    We’ve created OpenAI LP, a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.

    The checks and balances of this custom legal structure involve:

    • Fiduciary duty to the Charter: which always takes precedence over the financial interests of employees and investors
    • Capped returns: For the initial round of investors, all returns beyond 100x the initial investment are owned by OpenAI Nonprofit
    • Full control of the LP by the board of OpenAI Nonprofit

    We now ask:

    By Dec 31st 2019, will publicly available investment data or credible information about private investments value OpenAI at more than $10 billion?

    Categories:
    Organizational progress – OpenAI
    Policy – OpenAI – Implications of LP transition

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.