crowdsourcing precise futures modeling intelligent estimations assembling critical estimations formulating calibrated wisdom calculating predictive wisdom mapping the future calculating predictive estimations mapping calibrated forecasts assembling accurate forecasts assembling accurate forecasts delivering quantitative insights crowdsourcing probable predictions predicting definitive predictions mapping predictive estimations

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will an RL agent match the best human performance on Starcraft II with no domain-specific hardcoded knowledge, trained using no more than $10,000 of compute of public hardware?

Starcraft II is a hugely popular online, real-time strategy game, which provides a good testing ground for AI systems. As DeepMind wrote when announcing their Starcraft II project:

"[...] while the objective of the game is to beat the opponent, the player must also carry out and balance a number of sub-goals, such as gathering resources or building structures. In addition, a game can take from a few minutes to one hour to complete, meaning actions taken early in the game may not pay-off for a long time. Finally, the map is only partially observed, meaning agents must use a combination of memory and planning to succeed."

Note that this question does not just ask when Starcraft can be solved with any amount of effort, but rather relativises the performance to a publicly verifiable benchmark. We shall say that the game is solved when the agent is at least as good as the best human.


Resolution date will be set to the earliest of the following dates:

  • Publication date of a credible paper, blog-post, video or similar demonstrating an AI achieving the feat in question

  • A date earlier than the publication date, but referenced in a credible paper, blog-post, video or similar, by which the feat was achieved (similar to how DeepMind kept AlphaGo's victory over European champion Fan Hui secret from October 2015 to January 2016, in order to coincide with the publication of the corresponding Nature paper)

  • A date such that an expert council of technical AI researchers agree (by majority vote) that it is >=95% likely that the feat could have been carried out by that date. This means not just the date when the computational resources and algorithmic insights were available, but the date were they could have been fully deployed to solve the problem. For example, think the end and not the beginning of the AlphaGo project. [1] [2]

The $10,000 are 2018 US dollars.


[1] The point of this counterfactual resolution condition is as follows. Not all trajectories to advanced AI pass by a Starcraft victory. For example, it is possible that OpenAI were to impressively solve DOTA in full generality, and DeepMind subsequently drop their Starcraft project. In such a world, there might be a point at which it is clear that the feat in the question is achievable, even though no one has actually bothered to implement the experiment.
This is similar to how the release of the AlphaZero agent (playing chess, Go and shogi) should give us >=95% confidence that it is possible to play Othello at superhuman level without domain-specific knowledge, even though no one (to the author's knowledge) ran that experiment.
[2] More details regarding the council can be found here.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.