Will the fastest trained DAWNBench Image Classification entry, at some point in 2019, use non-NVIDIA hardware?

DAWNBench is a benchmarking suite for end-to-end deep learning systems:

Computation time and cost are critical resources in building deep models, yet many existing benchmarks focus solely on model accuracy. DAWNBench provides a reference set of common deep learning workloads for quantifying training time, training cost, inference latency, and inference cost across different optimization strategies, model architectures, software frameworks, clouds, and hardware.

As of January 27th 2019, the top ranked training time entry in the Image Classification on ImageNet competition is a deep learning model trained using the Tesla-V100. In fact all of the five top spots were trained using the Tesla-V100.

The Tesla-V100 is NVIDIA’s top of the line hardware for training deep learning models:

With 640 Tensor Cores, Tesla V100 is the world’s first GPU to break the 100 teraFLOPS (TFLOPS) barrier of deep learning performance.

For now this high performance GPU is dominant in the Image Classification challenge; however, will it remain on top? With new specialized ASICs being released and greater competition from other GPU manufacturers, NVIDIA is in an increasingly crowded field. And if the hardware rankings do change, this could serve as a leading indicator of a regime shift in the availability and price of top of the line AI systems.

By the end of 2019 will the fastest trained DAWNBench Image Classification entry at some point in 2019 have been trained with non-Nvidia hardware?

Resolution

This question will resolve as true if, at any point before 12/31/2019, the DAWNBench leaderboard reports a new verified first place entry in the "Image Classification on ImageNet" competition, in the training time category, AND that this entry uses hardware manufactured by a company other than NVIDIA.

Closing date will be retroactively set to a week before resolution date.

Categories: Drivers of progress – Compute – Economics – Supply, Workshop – Cluster 1: Operationalizations of compute

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Forecasting AI

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word