Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

By July 1st 2019, how many machines will produce greater than or equal to 900 GTEPs on the Graph500 BFS benchmark?

This question is related to the other Graph500 GTEPs question.


Thinking about the growth of computing power requires operationalizing "compute". Our question based on the well-known OpenAI paper pointing to a 3.5-month doubling time in compute uses Floating-point Operations (FLOPs) as a measure. However, some have argued that for certain purposes another measure -- TEPs -- makes more sense. In particular, the brain seems more bottlenecked by its ability to transmit information over long distances rather than its ability to perform basic arithmetic operations. This is important if treat the computational capacity of the brain as a key input into our forecasts.

Traversed Edges Per Second (TEPs) is a measure of the computational power and communication ability of a computer. An edge is the connection between two nodes in a graph, and to traverse the edge is to communicate between those two nodes.

A Breadth-First Search (BFS) is a well known graph search technique that starts with a single source node, then, in phases, finds and labels its neighbors, then the neighbors of its neighbors, etc.

The BFS benchmark runs a Breadth-First Search through a graph over 1 petabyte in size.

As of Nov 2018 there are currently 25 machines that have performed over 900 GTEPs in the BFS benchmark.

This question will be resolved using the Graph500 June 2019 report, based on the BFS benchmark.


Data

Nov 2018: http://graph500.org/?page_id=433

Specification of the benchmark: http://graph500.org/?page_id=12#sec-9_2

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.