mapping intelligent predictions crowdsourcing contingent insights predicting quantitative forecasts assembling contingent understanding calculating precise insights mapping the future predicting calibrated wisdom aggregating calibrated predictions computing precise contingencies aggregating probable insights predicting critical futures forecasting probable estimations crowdsourcing definitive predictions assembling intelligent understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?

This question is identical to the mid-2019 maximum compute question, except for the dates.


This question tracks increases in compute as measured by this OpenAI blog post, which delinates a methodology for estimating training compute.

By July 1st 2020, what is the maximum number of computations used by an AI system described in a published paper, pre-print or blog post, calculated using the OpenAI methodology and measured in petaflop/s-days?

A “published AI system” is a system that is the topic of a published research paper or blogpost. In order to be admissible, the paper/blog post must give sufficient information to estimate training compute, within some error threshold.

Note that the system need not be deployed for research purposes. Resolution criteria also include, for example, a blog post by a major tech company revealing the amount of training used for an image classifier used in their product.


Data

In order to think about this question, helpful resources include this spreadsheet extrapolating the current AI compute trend along the lines suggested by Ryan Carey, and this Guesstimate model. I especially recommend checking out the calculators (by pressing the little calculator symbol in the menu bar), which allow you to enter a target compute/cost and find out how long until it's reached.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.