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Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

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This questions has been copied from a duplicate on the main Metaculus site.


Paul Christiano suggests operationalising AI takeoff speeds in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)

Will a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does?

Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).

There will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.


Data:

As of 2018, it's taken about 16 years for the world economic output to double.

Categories:
AGI – Takeoff

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