By end of 2019, will there be a >=$500M AI startup acquisition?

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!



The question will resolve positive if:

  • there is an acquisition after April 9 and before Jan 1st, 2020, of a company whose core product/mission involves AI (e.g. by actively doing research into automation, machine learning or predictive analytics), over and above simply being a tech startup with a data science team; where
  • the acquiring entity gains either A) Majority equity or B) Governing control, and
  • there is credible information to pin-down the price to >=$500M with >=80% confidence.

The resolution date will be set to one week before the acquirer or the acquired company officially announce the deal (so we don’t require e.g. full due diligence processes to be completed in 2019).

Examples of acquisitions sufficient for positive resolution:

  • Ford’s $1B acquisition of self-driving car startup Argo AI
  • Google’s $500M acquisition of DeepMind
  • Palo Alto Networks $560M acquisition of cyber-security automation startup Demisto

Examples of acquisitions not sufficient for positive resolution:

  • Amazon’s $1B acquisition of online pharmacy PillPack
  • Uber’s $?? acquisition of Geometric Intelligence (I’m not able to put >80% on the valuation being high enough)
  • Myriad Genetics’ $375M Genetics acquisition of genetic testing firm Counsyl (wouldn’t have counted even if amount was higher, given that data science doesn’t seem sufficiently core to Counsyl’s approach)


Infographic of acquisitions between 2012 and 2017, sorted by acquiring company.

Detailed, real-time list of acquisitions (it’s a somewhat useful list, though note that their categorization of “AI” is much broader than required for positive resolution).

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site