By July 1st 2020, will there be an AI experiment (described in a published paper, pre-print, blog post or other credible report), that used at least 1800 pfs-days of compute, and which had as lead author/principal investigator/etc. a researcher whose primary affiliation is an academic instution?
The compute refers to the amount of compute used for training of the final system. The method of calculation of compute should be as similar as possible to that used in the "AI and compute" article.
Resolution date will be retroactively set to one week prior to an eventual credible report.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible!
See the FAQ.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Thanks for predicting!
Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.
Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!