Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?

There is also a version of this question conditional on AGI in <= 20 years, and six other questions related to OpenAI Five

OpenAI has announced the final live event for OpenAI five will be a series of matches against OG, the reigning world champions. OpenAI Five had previously played against human players at the International, and lost the majority of the matches played.

Have the past eight months been enough time for them to build a world champion level Dota2 AI?

Will OpenAI win a majority of the matches played against OG at thee OpenAI Five Finals on April 13th?

Resolution

  • The total number of matches will be the number of matches played live between OG and OpenAI Five.
  • For the purposes of question resolution OG will be considered the team that is fielded on April 13th - e.g. if for some reason a player is substituted onto the OG roster the team will still be OG.
Categories: Organizational progress – OpenAI

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.