Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
How many meaningful contributors to OpenAI's Neural MMO will there be by May 1st, 2020?
Neural MMO is a recently released research project by OpenAI. It's a Massively Multiplayer Online game, akin to Runescape. MMOs are the game format that most closely simulate the real world.
One of the goals of the project is to get contributions from other engineers and researchers.
We’ve designed this environment with open-source expansion in mind and for the research community to build upon.
I think this is important to forecast because of a tendency in AI research to optimize for benchmarks. If NeuralMMO becomes a benchmark test for other researchers, then we'd expect to see a lot more activity in this area of multi-agent research, and one indicator of the "likelihood to benchmark status" would be if many people start expanding the software/environment
How many "meaningful" contributors to Neural MMO will there be by May 1st, 2020?
- The number of contributors will be determined by the Github contributors page.
- Meaningful will be measured as code changes totaling over 300 lines of non-boilerplate code.
- I'll evaluate non-boilerplate code by looking for code changes that were not auto-generated, that were not file renames, etc. This will be subjective, I am keen to refine this to a more objective measure.
- If there are too many contributors for me to look through all of them (over 50), I will randomly sample 10% of the contributors over 300 lines, and determine the percentage who made meaningful contributions, and multiply the total by that percentage.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.