Question
Facebook Twitter
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • Invite Coauthors
  • Remove myself
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

    By 2021, will a political party in one of the top 60 countries (by nominal GDP) position themselves explicitly against AI?

    Created by jacobklagerros and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    There's also a version of this question asking about only the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA).

    Resolution

    The question resolves positive if, on Jan 1st 2021...

    • ...a party with some current or expected parliamentary representation (e.g. as revealed by polls)...
    • ...in one of the top 60 countries by nominal GDP (in either 2018 or resolution year)...
    • ...explicitly states in an official manner that they shall pursue policies broadly limiting the influence of AI on their country (it is sufficient if they simply mention terms such as "automation", "machine learning", "algorithms", "bots" etc.).

    Note that it is not sufficient that they merely position themselves against a particular application of the technology, such as political troll bots or intelligent drones, or merely push for regulation surrounding tech monopolies or privacy (which would have indirect effects on AI progress).

    Categories:
    Other sociological, economic, geopolitical questions

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.