By 2021, will a political party in one of the top 60 countries (by nominal GDP) position themselves explicitly against AI?

There's also a version of this question asking about only the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA).

Resolution

The question resolves positive if, on Jan 1st 2021...

...a party with some current or expected parliamentary representation (e.g. as revealed by polls)...
...in one of the top 60 countries by nominal GDP (in either 2018 or resolution year)...
...explicitly states in an official manner that they shall pursue policies broadly limiting the influence of AI on their country (it is sufficient if they simply mention terms such as "automation", "machine learning", "algorithms", "bots" etc.).

Note that it is not sufficient that they merely position themselves against a particular application of the technology, such as political troll bots or intelligent drones, or merely push for regulation surrounding tech monopolies or privacy (which would have indirect effects on AI progress).

Categories: Other sociological, economic, geopolitical questions

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Forecasting AI

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word