Metaculus Help: Spread the word
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Will the number of people who have joined a Metaculus AI workshop have doubled by July 1st (compared to mid-May)?
Following the recent success of our online workshops, we're working on ways to improve and scale the concept.
Moreover, we also want to experiment with using forecasting for meta-purposes, such as forecasting how the Metaculus AI project will develop and what next steps to take.
The question will resolve positive if the number of people who have visited at least one Metaculus AI workshop is >=42 by July 1st. (The number was 21 by the time this question was written.)
A "Metaculus AI workshop" is defined as one that is announced on this site or on our Discord server.
A person is said to have "joined" the workshop if they're present for at least 25 minutes.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.