composing critical insights aggregating critical understanding mapping intelligent predictions mapping definitive predictions calculating probable wisdom mapping the future composing precise futures crowdsourcing definitive estimations modeling intelligent contingencies crowdsourcing intelligent insights crowdsourcing intelligent futures exploring precise wisdom composing probable understanding mapping intelligent futures

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Conditional on human-level AI by 2039, will we see a tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble by 2024?

This question is related to others on the financial market response to advanced AI, including:


Background

Despite some concrete signs of promise of robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning ushering in a new age of automation, there is limited evidence of investors expecting a widespread technological transformation. With the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the S&P500 has been trending up only slowly (~0.3%-points per year).

Since investment decisions respond to improvements in capital’s current or expected marginal product, some trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing technologies is likely to be preceded by a substantial boom in investor activity.

However, how far in advance investors are able to predict a possible technological leap is a difficult issue itself.

Conditional on human-level AI by 2039 (or earlier), will the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for at least one quarter by the end of 2025?


Resolution

For the purpose of this question human-level AI is taken to mean a system that can pass a generalized intelligence test described by this previous Metaculus question. Moreover, the condition of having human-level AI is met upon definitive positive resolution of that question. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).


Data

Yearly historical data of S&P sector weightings.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.