Will mentions of AI or machine learning in the U.S. Congress double in 2019?

The 2018 AI Index report tracks government mentions of AI in U.S. Congress and the U.K. and Canadian Parliaments (see p. 44). Graphically, this measure of government interest follows an exponential trend, peaking at 88 mentions in the U.S. in 2018, up from 26 in 2017 and 9 in 2016.

Will the number of events or conversations in the transcripts of the U.S. Congressional Record, during which the terms _Artificial Intelligence or Machine Learning are mentioned at least once, be >=176 in 2019?_

Note that if both terms are mentioned the session counts as "2" towards the overall count. Note also that we exclude the Jan 1 2020 counts.

The full methodology of the report can be found in Appendix 18.

Data

Monthly data of government mentions of AI/ML since 1995, in the U.S., U.K. and Canadian Parliaments, including transcripts of the relevant sessions, can be found here.

Note, however, that country-to-country comparisons can be difficult as the U.K. data counts "comments", whereas the U.S. data counts "events" or "conversations".

Categories: Other question collections – AI Index, Other sociological, economic, geopolitical questions – USA, Workshop – Cluster 3: Economic and geopolitical indicators

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Forecasting AI

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word