Conditional on human-level AI before Jan 1st 2039 (see details below), will there by the end of 2019 be a published AI system -- with performance (roughly) at least as good as the AlphaStar that defeated TLO and MaNa, and hard-coded knowledge (roughly) no greater than AlphaStar -- whose APM distribution has a tail comparable to human players?
We refer to the unconditional version of the question for full background, description and resolution conditions.
A "published" system is one described in a credible blog post, pre-print, peer-reviewed paper, or similar.
A "a tail comparable to humans players" is quite vague, as I don't want to end up with an ambiguous resolution by too narrowly constraining what possible APM restrictions might look like.
Human-level AI is taken to mean a system that can pass a generalized intelligence test described by this previous Metaculus question.