FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction (free)
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
  • Unmake your prediction
    •

    Conditional on human-level AI by 2039, will there by end of 2019 be an agent at least as good as AlphaStar using non-controversial, human-like APM restrictions?

    Created by jacobklagerros on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.

    Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Question

    There is also an unconditional version of this question. Asking about both allows us to properly update on the event, by multiplying our prior with the normalised strength of evidence to get

    Conditional on human-level AI before Jan 1st 2039 (see details below), will there by the end of 2019 be a published AI system -- with performance (roughly) at least as good as the AlphaStar that defeated TLO and MaNa, and hard-coded knowledge (roughly) no greater than AlphaStar -- whose APM distribution has a tail comparable to human players?

    Resolution

    We refer to the unconditional version of the question for full background, description and resolution conditions.

    A "published" system is one described in a credible blog post, pre-print, peer-reviewed paper, or similar.

    A "a tail comparable to humans players" is quite vague, as I don't want to end up with an ambiguous resolution by too narrowly constraining what possible APM restrictions might look like.

    Human-level AI is taken to mean a system that can pass a generalized intelligence test described by this previous Metaculus question.

    Categories:
    AGI – Various conditionals
    Importance of superhuman micro abilities in games
    Organizational progress – DeepMind

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    This question is not yet open for predictions.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

    Metaculus help: Predicting

    Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

    The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

    The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

    Thanks for predicting!

    Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

    Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

    Track your predictions
    Continue exploring the site
    random question question list