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# Conditional on human-level AI by 2039, will there by end of 2019 be an agent at least as good as AlphaStar using non-controversial, human-like APM restrictions?

### Question

There is also an unconditional version of this question. Asking about both allows us to properly update on the event, by multiplying our prior $P(human\ level\ AI)$ with the normalised strength of evidence to get

Conditional on human-level AI before Jan 1st 2039 (see details below), will there by the end of 2019 be a published AI system -- with performance (roughly) at least as good as the AlphaStar that defeated TLO and MaNa, and hard-coded knowledge (roughly) no greater than AlphaStar -- whose APM distribution has a tail comparable to human players?

Resolution

We refer to the unconditional version of the question for full background, description and resolution conditions.

A "published" system is one described in a credible blog post, pre-print, peer-reviewed paper, or similar.

A "a tail comparable to humans players" is quite vague, as I don't want to end up with an ambiguous resolution by too narrowly constraining what possible APM restrictions might look like.

Human-level AI is taken to mean a system that can pass a generalized intelligence test described by this previous Metaculus question.

### Prediction

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