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Conditional on human-level AI by 2039, will there by end of 2019 be an agent at least as good as AlphaStar using non-controversial, human-like APM restrictions?


There is also an unconditional version of this question. Asking about both allows us to properly update on the event, by multiplying our prior with the normalised strength of evidence to get

Conditional on human-level AI before Jan 1st 2039 (see details below), will there by the end of 2019 be a published AI system -- with performance (roughly) at least as good as the AlphaStar that defeated TLO and MaNa, and hard-coded knowledge (roughly) no greater than AlphaStar -- whose APM distribution has a tail comparable to human players?


We refer to the unconditional version of the question for full background, description and resolution conditions.

A "published" system is one described in a credible blog post, pre-print, peer-reviewed paper, or similar.

A "a tail comparable to humans players" is quite vague, as I don't want to end up with an ambiguous resolution by too narrowly constraining what possible APM restrictions might look like.

Human-level AI is taken to mean a system that can pass a generalized intelligence test described by this previous Metaculus question.

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