formulating predictive predictions crowdsourcing predictive understanding modeling intelligent understanding exploring precise predictions crowdsourcing precise contingencies mapping the future formulating accurate contingencies delivering contingent insights forecasting critical estimations crowdsourcing predictive futures delivering contingent contingencies modeling critical futures generating definitive understanding delivering definitive predictions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

By 2020, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?

This question is related to others on algorithmic progress, including:


Background

Algorithmic progress is a key driver of AI progress. When trying to estimate the time until superhuman Starcraft 2 agents could be trained for <=$10.000, James improved DanielFilan’s basic model by including a halving time for algorithmic improvement in addition to one for Moore’s law. (They both won AI Fermi Prizes for their contributions.)

I then gathered some data for this variable, by looking at how much data Atari agents needed to reach a certain level of performance. This revealed a halving time of roughly a year.

The AI Metaculus team see this as an early success -- a great example of the kind of collaborative progress on AI forecasting that we hope to scale, and which we think could become very useful to researchers in AI safety and policy. We are currently working on both new features and better incentives to support this.

But for now, we invite the community to make progress on this input to the Guesstimate model.


Resolution

The relevant metric is: median number of millions of frames until performance equivalent to the max of a basic DQN, across Atari games.

The question will resolve Jan 1st, 2020, based on a paper, pre-print, blog post, or similar, which gives sufficient information to estimate this.


Data

Eyeballing Figure 1 from the Rainbow DQN paper, we get the following median number of millions of frames until performance equivalent to the max of a basic DQN, across Atari games:

DQN [19/12/2013]: 125

DDQN [22/09/2015]: 39

Dueling DDQN [20/11/2015]: 26

Prioritized DDQN [06/01/2016]: 24

PPO [20/07/2017]: 12 (not from Rainbow paper, estimated in below spreadsheet)

Rainbow [06/10/2017]: 7

IMPALA [06/28/2018]: 1.2 - 9.5 (not from Rainbow paper, estimated in below spreadsheet, the most uncertain estimate)

Or about a halving time of a year (very roughly). (This is currently the 5th percentile in James' model.)

Here's a spreadsheet version.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.