Will another Chinese city invest >=$10 billion of USD in AI by mid-2019?

In May 2018 the Chinese city of Tianjin announced a $16 billion AI fund.

This Northern Chinese port city, with about 15 million inhabitants, dwarfed the EU's ~$1.8 billion plan announced earlier in the same year.

Other Chinese investments include a $2 billion AI industrial development park in Beijing, and a plan announced by Shanghai to build an AI industry worth $15 billion by 2020. This is all part of China's Next Generation AI Development plan, which aims to make China the world's major AI innovation center by 2030.

Apart from Tianjin, China has 14 other cities with more than 10 million inhabitants, only some of which have announced AI programs.

Now we ask:

By July 1st 2019, will another Chinese city or province announce a plan for a $10 billion or more investment in AI and AI research?

Resolution

This question will resolve true if: *There is an official announcement by a city or regional government leader of a new $10+ billion investment in AI.

There are no constraints on the period over which the funding will be spent. However, it should be allocated via a city/province vehicle. For example, Tianjin starting a $15 billion fund, with funding from private companies and the financial sector, counts; whereas something like the EU's call for $20 billion in combined public and private funding to be invested into to AI, although only providing $1.8 billion from the European Commission, would not count.

Categories: Other sociological, economic, geopolitical questions – China, Workshop – Cluster 3: Economic and geopolitical indicators

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Forecasting AI

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word