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How much computation did OpenAI Five (TI 2018 version) use for training?
We continue our series of questions to track the compute used by major projects (the previously most extensive tracking, OpenAI's AI and Compute paper, only tracks projects up to the end of 2017).
This question asks about computation in PFLOP/s-days used by the version of OpenAI Five that played pro teams in The International 2018 (blog post here.
The estimate should not include computation used for hyperparameter tuning and architecture search.
Resolution by paper or other reliable announcement (this may already have resolved, but I haven't dug deep enough into the paper to find out. In either case, it will be good to gather guesstimates of it here on Metaculus AI).
The method of calculations should be as similar as possible to that used in the "AI and compute" article.
Here's a Guesstimate model for quickly thinking about the relation between compute and cost, and how it changes over time, based on Ryan Carey's estimates. I especially recommend checking out the calculators (by pressing the little calculator symbol in the menu bar), which allow you to enter a target compute/cost and find out how long until it's reached.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.