This question was suggested by zakeeulhaq, who also did extensive background research.
A recent paper by DeepMind (Saxton et al., 2019) analyzes the mathematical reasoning ability of neural models; using the Transformer model (Vaswani et al., 2017). Their best mark was 35% in a high school mathematics exam (questions sampled from a UK GCSE Edexcel Higher Tier paper, 20122013). The set of questions covered algebra, arithmetic, calculus, polynomial factorization and elementary probability theory.
See here for an accessible video introduction to the paper. More indepth background is given in a comment below, citing zakeeulhaq’s notes.
We now ask:
By Jan 1st 2021, will there EITHER…

… be a credible report of a neural model with a score of >=70% on the task suite used in the 2019 DeepMind paper…

OR be judged by a council of experts that it’s 95% likely such a model could be implemented, were a sufficiently competent lab to try… [1]

OR be a neural model with performance on another benchmark judge by a council of experts to be equally impressive, with 95% confidence?
Resolution
For purposes of resolution, these terms are interpreted in accordance with the Technical AI Forecasting Resolution Dictionary v0.2.0. Any term whose interpretation deliberately departs from this standard has been marked with a ^."
In particular, a credible report is defined as any item in:

Blogpost coauthored by at least one of the researchers

Preprint posted to arXiv or similar

Peerreviewed (published) paper

Secondhand report from a trusted source providing at least as much information as the median acceptable blog post