By end of 2020, will another state-of-the-art model be only partially released due to explicit concerns about malicious use?

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!


This question is related to others concerning GPT-2, including:

In their release of the GPT-2 language model, OpenAI wrote:

Other disciplines such as biotechnology and cybersecurity have long had active debates about responsible publication in cases with clear misuse potential, and we hope that our experiment will serve as a case study for more nuanced discussions of model and code release decisions in the AI community.

We’re now posting several questions to forecast the impact of this model and the policy surrounding it. Here we ask:

Before Jan 1st 2021, will an AI lab credibly claim to have made an improvement over the start-of-the-art on a non-trivial benchmark, but avoid publishing details of the model (such as data, parameter tunings, or implementation details) explicitly due to concerns surrounding malicious use?

The benchmark need not be a popular or widely used one; but it should not be a fringe or trivial benchmark (e.g. the question would not resolve by an arXiv pre-print from an unknown lab claiming to have beaten their own image-recognition benchmark, but without getting any discussion from the main AI capabilities community).

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site