exploring probable forecasts mapping calibrated predictions computing calibrated futures calculating intelligent insights crowdsourcing probable estimations mapping the future assembling precise wisdom delivering critical wisdom forecasting quantitative wisdom modeling predictive estimations predicting critical predictions forecasting contingent predictions computing accurate understanding exploring accurate futures

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What percentage of theorems will be proven by an RL model in the HOList benchmark by end of 2019?

The HOList Leaderboard, recently released by researchers at Google, is a benchmark test for automated theorem provers.

Plausibly, if an automated model can prove theorems in a novel way that humans have not, it points to their use in advanced scientific inquiry.

As of May 27th, 2019, the current leader in the RL category has proven 36.55% of the theorems in the HOList dataset.

By end of 2019, what percentage of theorems will be proven by an RL model in the HOList benchmark?

The resolution criteria will be the publicly reported HOList benchmark website.

Categories: Benchmarks, Drivers of progress – Algorithms

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.