By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

After Deepmind's successful rollout of AlphaStar against Mana, the AI lab started to test AlphaStar against players online. In this iteration AlphaStar has a limited field of view and more APM restrictions.

Some redditors are reporting that AlphaStar is getting creamed; however, their methodology of tracking and finding AlphaStar games might be unreliable. How likely do you think it is that AlphaStar will win a supermajority of its games against pros?

By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?

We'll evaluate the question when DeepMind releases the results of the experiment.
This question will resolve positively if AlphaStar wins against Grandmaster level players more than 80% of the time.
This question will resolve ambiguously if AlphaStar plays less than ten games against Grandmaster level players.
We'll only evaluate games played as part of the Blizzard online experiment.

Categories: Organizational progress – DeepMind, Other question collections – BERI open-source question set – General performance benchmarks

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