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    By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?

    Created by ghabs on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by ghabs on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.
    Cross-posted on Metaculus.

    Question

    After Deepmind's successful rollout of AlphaStar against Mana, the AI lab started to test AlphaStar against players online. In this iteration AlphaStar has a limited field of view and more APM restrictions.

    Some redditors are reporting that AlphaStar is getting creamed; however, their methodology of tracking and finding AlphaStar games might be unreliable. How likely do you think it is that AlphaStar will win a supermajority of its games against pros?

    By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?

    • We'll evaluate the question when DeepMind releases the results of the experiment.

    • This question will resolve positively if AlphaStar wins against Grandmaster level players more than 80% of the time.

    • This question will resolve ambiguously if AlphaStar plays less than ten games against Grandmaster level players.

    • We'll only evaluate games played as part of the Blizzard online experiment.

    Categories:
    Organizational progress – DeepMind
    Other question collections – BERI open-source question set – General performance benchmarks

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