delivering precise forecasts assembling predictive estimations generating quantitative predictions exploring predictive futures exploring probable understanding mapping the future generating definitive contingencies forecasting calibrated insights aggregating predictive forecasts crowdsourcing probable futures assembling predictive predictions crowdsourcing probable predictions crowdsourcing contingent wisdom forecasting definitive estimations


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?

Finding the right questions is crucial in order to build a repository of predictions which are not just accurate, but also useful to organisations making progress on AI safety and policy.

When making your suggestions...

  • Feel free to be brief, hand-wavy, etc.
  • We've found that in early stages the gist underlying a question is more important than the exact formulation, so make sure to mention why you care about your suggested question
  • In case questions are promising, the Metaculus AI team has the bandwidth to help with operationalising, gathering background data and crafting good resolution conditions.
  • In case something is hard to capture using only a single question, we can get at it using a "Bayesian question cluster" of multiple related questions. We're not really constrained by number of questions we can add at the moment.