Discussion topic: what are some suggestions for questions to launch?

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Finding the right questions is crucial in order to build a repository of predictions which are not just accurate, but also useful to organisations making progress on AI safety and policy.

When making your suggestions...

  • Feel free to be brief, hand-wavy, etc.
  • We've found that in early stages the gist underlying a question is more important than the exact formulation, so make sure to mention why you care about your suggested question
  • In case questions are promising, the Metaculus AI team has the bandwidth to help with operationalising, gathering background data and crafting good resolution conditions.
  • In case something is hard to capture using only a single question, we can get at it using a "Bayesian question cluster" of multiple related questions. We're not really constrained by number of questions we can add at the moment.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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