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- August 5, 2017
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Forecaster Stats
Predictions
116 predictions on 63 questions (24 resolved)
Comments
183 comments on 66 questions
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
964 unique forecasts on authored questions
Popular Questions
- By end of 2019, will there be a publicly available language model close to as powerful as GPT-2? (80 forecasts)
- By end of 2019, will there be an agent at least as good as AlphaStar using non-controversial, human-like APM restrictions? (66 forecasts)
- By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? (63 forecasts)
- By end of 2019, will there be an agreement regulating dual-use publishing norms, endorsed by both DeepMind and OpenAI? (59 forecasts)
- When will an RL agent match the best human performance on Starcraft II with no domain-specific hardcoded knowledge, trained using no more than $10,000 of compute of public hardware? (56 forecasts)