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- August 5, 2017
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Forecaster Stats
Level
2 (Guesser) on Metaculus AI Forecasting
9 (Predictor) on Metaculus Prime
Predictions
116 predictions on 63 questions (24 resolved)
Comments
183 comments on 66 questions
Rank
36th
Achievements
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
961 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Organizational progress – OpenAI (10)
- Workshop – Cluster 2: Performance benchmarks (9)
- Other question collections – BERI open-source question set – General performance benchmarks (8)
- Other question collections – AI Index (6)
- Drivers of progress – Compute (6)
Popular Questions
- By end of 2019, will there be a publicly available language model close to as powerful as GPT-2? (80 forecasts)
- By end of 2019, will there be an agent at least as good as AlphaStar using non-controversial, human-like APM restrictions? (66 forecasts)
- By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? (63 forecasts)
- By end of 2019, will there be an agreement regulating dual-use publishing norms, endorsed by both DeepMind and OpenAI? (59 forecasts)
- By end of 2020, will there be malicious use of the language technology behind OpenAI’s GPT-2? (54 forecasts)