Metaculus
Forecasting AI
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jacobklagerros
formerly known as
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August 5, 2017
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Forecaster Stats
level
2 (Guesser) on Metaculus AI Forecasting
9 (Predictor) on Metaculus Prime
predictions
123 predictions on 64 questions (16 resolved)
comments
181 comments on 64 questions
rank
21st
achievements
Author Stats
Questions
68 authored questions
Forecasts
949 forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
Popular Questions
- By end of 2019, will there be a publicly available language model close to as powerful as GPT-2? (80 forecasts)
- By end of 2019, will there be an agent at least as good as AlphaStar using non-controversial, human-like APM restrictions? (66 forecasts)
- By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? (63 forecasts)
- By end of 2019, will there be an agreement regulating dual-use publishing norms, endorsed by both DeepMind and OpenAI? (59 forecasts)
- By end of 2020, will there be malicious use of the language technology behind OpenAI’s GPT-2? (54 forecasts)