Forecasting AI

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How do we factorize the key drivers of AI progress?


Currently, Metaculus AI looks like:

A collection of questions of various shapes and sizes, with some clusters here and there.

We want to build towards something that looks more like:

A structured worldview of AI, where making progress on each question usefully feeds into a larger whole.

To start this, we are building up a structured model of the drivers of AI progress. That is, key inputs that determine the pace and direction of progress. We invite discussion and suggestions from the community. For example:

  • Adding further factorization and branches
  • Suggesting questions that capture progress under a particular branch
  • Modelling/analysing the relative importance of different branches
  • ...or something else!


The current model looks like this (if you prefer to read and comment in a Google doc, you can do so here):

Drivers of progress