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- February 14, 2016
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Forecaster Stats
Level
2 (Guesser) on Metaculus AI Forecasting
10 (Superpredictor) on Metaculus Prime
Predictions
61 predictions on 38 questions (22 resolved)
Comments
82 comments on 39 questions
Rank
44th
Achievements
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
359 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Benchmarks (8)
- Drivers of progress – Algorithms (4)
- Organizational progress – OpenAI (4)
- Drivers of progress – Compute – Economics – Supply (3)
- Other Question Collections - Ought Question Set (3)
Popular Questions
- By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark? (199 forecasts)
- By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players? (69 forecasts)
- Will an RL agent successfully obtain a diamond in the 2019 Minecraft RL challenge? (45 forecasts)
- By the end of 2019 will OpenAI have released details of a for-profit product, service, or partnership? (39 forecasts)
- Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG? (31 forecasts)